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Moderna

MRNA · 2026-09-08

Research

  • Melanoma Phase 3: RFS and DMFS endpoints met. August 19 release ↗
  • Model: combination-dose substitution; INT profit share; PA royalties.
Catalysts
WindowEvidence
Full melanoma resultsEffect size, safety, follow-up
Autumn 2026Sales, margins, cash
PA · 2026 ERegistrational results
Norovirus studyEfficacy by cohort
Lung studiesRandomized results
Flu · 2026–2030High-dose comparison; confirmation
Debt · 2030 / 2032Maturities / refinancing
LitigationRulings / cash obligations

Operating update ↗10-Q ↗Financing 8-K ↗

Financials

USD millions; EPS in USD/share

Revenue
Revenue values and sources are in the table below.
Historical quarterly results, Latest available. USD millions, except EPS in dollars per share and shares in millions. Select a value for sources.
USD millions2025-Q32025-Q42026-Q12026-Q2
Revenue
COVID sales (combined brands)
RSV sales
Other revenue
Cost of sales
Gross profit
R&D
SG&A
Operating income / loss
Net income / loss
Diluted EPS ($/share)—
Cash + marketable investments
Operating cash flow
Capex (cash outflow)
OCF − capex
Accounting notes

Cash includes investments. FCF = OCF − capex.

H1 2026 COGS: $876m settlement charge; $172m excluding charge. July cash payment: $950m.

Filing comparison

3 differences

2024-Q2 filing comparison. USD and share counts in millions; EPS in dollars per share.
MetricOriginal filingLatest availableDifference
COVID sales (combined brands)—Newly available
Current restricted cash—Newly available
RSV sales—Newly available

Forecast

2026 A/E: actual H1 + estimated H2.

Base annual forecast. USD millions, except EPS. Estimates; 2026 annual combines actual H1 and estimated H2.
USD millions2026 A/E2027 E2028 E2029 E2030 E2031 E
Company revenue2,1002,3852,7913,3173,9184,418
Cost of sales1,7007889311,1091,3091,467
Gross contribution4001,5971,8602,2082,6092,951
R&D · Moderna net share2,9002,3002,1002,0502,0001,960
Central SG&A1,000900850875900900
Operating income(3,500)(1,603)(1,090)(717)(291)91
Nonoperating205187153132124147
Pretax income(3,295)(1,416)(937)(585)(167)238
Tax24405289156215
Net income(3,319)(1,456)(988)(673)(323)23
Conditional operating cash flow(2,062)(870)(431)(143)35377
Cash capex250200233267300290
Conditional cash · unfinanced7,5286,4395,7755,3654,5004,587
Probability-weighted cash · unfinanced7,5286,4395,7735,3554,4704,508
2032–2055
Base forecast 2032–2037. USD millions, except EPS. Estimates; 2026 annual combines actual H1 and estimated H2.
USD millions2032 E2033 E2034 E2035 E2036 E2037 E
Company revenue4,8295,0875,2485,4225,4175,440
Cost of sales1,5911,6561,6751,6851,6201,559
Gross contribution3,2383,4313,5733,7373,7973,881
R&D · Moderna net share1,9201,8801,8401,8001,7201,640
Central SG&A900900900900850800
Operating income4186518331,0371,2271,441
Nonoperating746080110150198
Pretax income4927129141,1461,3761,639
Tax252284306330344362
Net income2394286088161,0321,277
Conditional operating cash flow5887799551,2951,4961,702
Cash capex280270260250230210
Conditional cash · unfinanced1,8952,4043,0994,1445,4106,902
Probability-weighted cash · unfinanced1,7262,0892,5663,2954,1325,066
Base forecast 2038–2043. USD millions, except EPS. Estimates; 2026 annual combines actual H1 and estimated H2.
USD millions2038 E2039 E2040 E2041 E2042 E2043 E
Company revenue5,4565,4275,3555,0264,6924,362
Cost of sales1,5001,4451,3921,2621,1441,038
Gross contribution3,9563,9833,9633,7643,5473,324
R&D · Moderna net share1,5601,4801,4001,3001,2001,100
Central SG&A750700650610570530
Operating income1,6461,8031,9131,8541,7771,694
Nonoperating253316384455528599
Pretax income1,8992,1182,2972,3102,3052,293
Tax394424459462461459
Net income1,5051,6951,8381,8481,8441,835
Conditional operating cash flow1,8962,0542,1662,1892,1682,140
Cash capex190170150145140135
Conditional cash · unfinanced8,60810,49212,50814,55216,58118,586
Probability-weighted cash · unfinanced6,1007,2208,4149,59510,73711,845
Base forecast 2044–2049. USD millions, except EPS. Estimates; 2026 annual combines actual H1 and estimated H2.
USD millions2044 E2045 E2046 E2047 E2048 E2049 E
Company revenue4,0463,7293,4043,0902,8022,541
Cost of sales942855777706641583
Gross contribution3,1042,8742,6272,3842,1611,958
R&D · Moderna net share1,000900820740660580
Central SG&A490450410370330290
Operating income1,6141,5241,3971,2741,1711,088
Nonoperating6707398078749381,001
Pretax income2,2842,2632,2052,1482,1092,089
Tax457453441430422418
Net income1,8271,8101,7641,7181,6871,671
Conditional operating cash flow2,1132,0792,0131,9461,8921,853
Cash capex1301251161079889
Conditional cash · unfinanced20,56922,52224,41926,25828,05229,815
Probability-weighted cash · unfinanced12,93013,99715,03516,04717,04318,035
Base forecast 2050–2055. USD millions, except EPS. Estimates; 2026 annual combines actual H1 and estimated H2.
USD millions2050 E2051 E2052 E2053 E2054 E2055 E
Company revenue2,3032,0911,8991,7241,5661,421
Cost of sales529481438398362329
Gross contribution1,7741,6101,4621,3261,2041,092
R&D · Moderna net share500440380320260200
Central SG&A250220190160130100
Operating income1,024950892846814792
Nonoperating1,0631,1241,1851,2451,3061,370
Pretax income2,0872,0742,0762,0922,1202,162
Tax417415415418424432
Net income1,6691,6591,6611,6731,6961,730
Conditional operating cash flow1,8281,8031,7901,7881,7971,987
Cash capex807468625650
Conditional cash · unfinanced31,56333,29235,01436,74038,48140,418
Probability-weighted cash · unfinanced19,03220,02921,03422,05523,10124,311
Quarterly · 2026 Q3–2030 Q2

EPS: spot-share basis.

Base quarterly forecast. USD millions, except EPS. Estimates; 2026 annual combines actual H1 and estimated H2.
USD millions2026-Q32026-Q42027-Q12027-Q2
Company revenue861705319189
Cost of sales3592939953
Gross contribution503411220136
R&D · Moderna net share800800575575
Central SG&A306306225225
Operating income(603)(694)(580)(664)
Nonoperating47575248
Pretax income(556)(637)(528)(616)
Tax001010
Net income(556)(637)(538)(626)
Conditional operating cash flow(412)(493)(391)(479)
Cash capex76765050
Conditional cash · unfinanced8,1157,5287,0866,557
Probability-weighted cash · unfinanced8,1157,5287,0866,557
EPS estimate · USD/share(1.39)(1.59)(1.34)(1.56)
Base quarterly forecast. USD millions, except EPS. Estimates; 2026 annual combines actual H1 and estimated H2.
USD millions2027-Q32027-Q42028-Q12028-Q2
Company revenue1,037839363214
Cost of sales35328211461
Gross contribution685556249153
R&D · Moderna net share575575525525
Central SG&A225225213213
Operating income(115)(244)(489)(585)
Nonoperating44434339
Pretax income(72)(201)(446)(546)
Tax10101010
Net income(82)(211)(456)(556)
Conditional operating cash flow65(64)(317)(416)
Cash capex50505858
Conditional cash · unfinanced6,5726,4396,0645,590
Probability-weighted cash · unfinanced6,5726,4396,0635,588
EPS estimate · USD/share(0.20)(0.53)(1.14)(1.39)
Base quarterly forecast. USD millions, except EPS. Estimates; 2026 annual combines actual H1 and estimated H2.
USD millions2028-Q32028-Q42029-Q12029-Q2
Company revenue1,235979419246
Cost of sales42433213170
Gross contribution812647288176
R&D · Moderna net share525525513513
Central SG&A213213219219
Operating income74(91)(443)(555)
Nonoperating35373734
Pretax income109(54)(407)(521)
Tax22101010
Net income87(64)(417)(531)
Conditional operating cash flow22775(284)(399)
Cash capex58586767
Conditional cash · unfinanced5,7585,7755,4244,959
Probability-weighted cash · unfinanced5,7565,7735,4204,952
EPS estimate · USD/share0.21(0.16)(1.04)(1.33)
Base quarterly forecast. USD millions, except EPS. Estimates; 2026 annual combines actual H1 and estimated H2.
USD millions2029-Q32029-Q42030-Q12030-Q2
Company revenue1,4921,160486287
Cost of sales51439515181
Gross contribution979765335207
R&D · Moderna net share513513500500
Central SG&A219219225225
Operating income24834(390)(518)
Nonoperating30323330
Pretax income27766(357)(488)
Tax55131010
Net income22253(367)(498)
Conditional operating cash flow354185(277)(409)
Cash capex67677575
Conditional cash · unfinanced5,2475,3655,0134,529
Probability-weighted cash · unfinanced5,2385,3554,9984,509
EPS estimate · USD/share0.540.13(0.92)(1.25)
Accounting basis

Revenue: owned sales + net INT collaboration income + PA royalties.

USD millions2026 A/E2027 E2028 E2029 E2030 E2031 E
Proportionate economic revenue2,1002,3852,8003,3493,9814,523
Company revenue2,1002,3852,7913,3173,9184,418
Proportionate economic cost of sales1,7007889401,1411,3721,572
Company cost of sales1,7007889311,1091,3091,467
Net INT collaboration income—0123977129
PA royalties—0391726
SBC cash add-back450400383367350340
Probability-weighted operating cash flow(2,062)(870)(433)(151)15328
Probability-weighted unlevered cash flow—(1,657)(1,196)(907)(746)(434)
Partner milestone cash0000150150
  • Cash: conditional and probability-weighted schedules; separate interest balances.
  • R&D includes program development. Margins include INT commercialization and royalties; central SG&A separate.
  • SBC: valuation expense; cash add-back. No tax-loss asset.
  • 2055 cutoff; no terminal value. Working capital released at cutoff.

Cost guidance ↗ · H1 filing ↗

Valuation and funding

Scenario SOTP · 15 assets · company costs included · 2055 horizon · 411.9m shares

USD millions, except per shareBearBaseBull
Discount rate13%11%9%
COVID franchise: Spikevax + mNEXSPIKE3,6008,12316,238
mRESVIA2146321,439
mFLUSIVA9523,0007,151
mCOMBRIAX1,4935,96115,400
mRNA-1403(500)(111)1,148
mRNA-3927(14)97587
INT — adjuvant high-risk melanoma(534)1222,783
INT — surgery-first adjuvant NSCLC(402)(304)644
INT — residual NSCLC after neoadjuvant therapy(473)(353)889
INT — high-risk stage I nonsquamous NSCLC(426)(425)193
INT — high-risk resected RCC(291)(285)192
INT — resected high-risk muscle-invasive bladder cancer(291)(317)(63)
INT — high-risk BCG-naive NMIBC(259)(289)(40)
INT — first-line metastatic melanoma(216)(254)(175)
INT — first-line metastatic squamous NSCLC(245)(237)303
Operating asset subtotal2,61115,36046,689
Central cost PV · deduct17,72218,53221,954
Enterprise residual(15,111)(3,172)24,735
Estimated net cash adjustment4,3684,5954,762
Unfloored equity residual(10,743)1,42229,497
Equity residual / share(26.08)3.4571.62
Floored / share0.003.4571.62

Excludes new financing.

Exclusions
  • CMV: Phase 2, transplant recipients. Congenital program discontinued. No modeled value.
  • Other early pipeline: no modeled value.
  • INT exclusions: selected recurrent/previously treated cohorts, upper-tract urothelial cancer, NMIBC monotherapy, resected stage IV melanoma.
  • NSCLC: resected cohort split by prior treatment; stage I and metastatic cohorts separate.
Asset valuation bridge

Base · USDm

ProgramSuccess-case PVRisk-adjusted PVDevelopment PVrNPV
COVID franchise: Spikevax + mNEXSPIKE8,1238,12308,123
mRESVIA6326320632
mFLUSIVA3,0003,00003,000
mCOMBRIAX5,9615,96105,961
mRNA-1403532213324(111)
mRNA-39271861121597
INT — adjuvant high-risk melanoma1,022869747122
INT — surgery-first adjuvant NSCLC441221524(304)
INT — residual NSCLC after neoadjuvant therapy595268620(353)
INT — high-risk stage I nonsquamous NSCLC376132557(425)
INT — high-risk resected RCC38195380(285)
INT — resected high-risk muscle-invasive bladder cancer23659375(317)
INT — high-risk BCG-naive NMIBC24649338(289)
INT — first-line metastatic melanoma12325279(254)
INT — first-line metastatic squamous NSCLC42385321(237)
Discount rate × melanoma probability

Adjuvant melanoma only · USD/share

Rate55%75%85%90%
9%3.714.284.574.71
11%2.753.223.453.57
13%2.142.542.732.83

Funding

Assumed raises: cash below $500m → $1.5bn; 5% fees. Uncommitted.

CaseFirst raiseIssue price, USDGross, USDmFees, USDmNew shares, mLegacy ownership¹
Bear2029-Q43525,2621,263721.836.3%
Base—70000.0100.0%
Bull—140000.0100.0%

¹ Financing dilution only; excludes future employee awards.

Raise schedule

Bear

PeriodCash before raiseGross raiseFeesUSD/shareShares, m
2029-Q43951,1635835.0033.24
2030-Q23061,2576335.0035.92
2030-Q41891,3806935.0039.42
2031-Q23641,1966035.0034.17
2032-Q1(2,617)4,33421735.00123.82
2032-Q44411,1155635.0031.85
2033-Q24731,0815435.0030.90
2034-Q21431,4297135.0040.82
2035-Q23271,2356235.0035.29
2036-Q25001,0535335.0030.08
2037-Q44291,1275635.0032.20
2039-Q13311,2316235.0035.16
2040-Q24171,1405735.0032.58
2042-Q14801,0745435.0030.67
2043-Q44251,1315735.0032.33
2045-Q24851,0685335.0030.53
2047-Q24721,0825435.0030.91
2049-Q44841,0705335.0030.56
2053-Q24591,0965535.0031.31
Share-count sensitivity

Options netted at August 27 reference price.

BasisShares, mBear USD/shareBase USD/shareBull USD/share
Basic · known events400.0(26.86)3.5673.74
Basic + vested overhang411.9(26.08)3.4571.62
Gross 42m equivalents442.0(24.31)3.2266.74

Converts: debt treatment. No conversion shares or capped-call asset.

Capital and cash bridge

USD millions. Financing reference ↗: $142.77, 2026-08-27.

Reported cash + investments · June 30
6,910
July settlement · subtract
950
Convertible proceeds, net of capped call
2,628.5
Known option exercise cash
14.4
Event-only cash · before interim operations
8,602.9
Estimated September 8 cash · base
8,231.9
Funded debt principal
3,600
Finance leases
37

Maturities: Ares 2030; converts 2032. Lease cash: principal + interest.

InputValueAs ofSource
Ares principal600.0 USDm2026-06-3010-Q ↗
Ares cash interest9.2%2026-06-3010-Q ↗
Convertible principal3,000.0 USDm2026-09-018-K ↗
Convertible proceeds before capped call2,957.3 USDm2026-09-018-K ↗
Capped-call premium328.8 USDm2026-09-018-K ↗
Lease cash · H2 202619.0 USDm2026-06-3010-Q ↗
Lease cash · 202719.0 USDm2026-06-3010-Q ↗

Literature

Retracted