Valuation
Partial · June 30, 2026 anchor · EURm · through 2055 · terminal value: 0
Update assumptions
Regeneron upfront commitment
USD1,000m upfront: €890.9m at assumed USD/EUR 1.1225 (2026-10-19 ECB reference rate). Base PV deduction: €855.3m.
Q4 2026 payment timing assumed. Settlement date and FX unknown. One cash outflow outside UFCF; one PV equity deduction; no tax shield assumed.
New-product costs and profits: 50:50, subject to an undisclosed budget cap. Regeneron initially bears excess costs, with future recoupment rights. Dupixent terms unchanged; new-program value and incremental R&D unresolved.
Milestone ceilings and payment sensitivities
Conditional ceilings: development USD1,000m; regulatory USD2,500m; commercial USD3,500m. Scope, dates and probabilities unknown; not booked liabilities.
Assumed timing / FX alternatives · expected economic cash proxy
Cheplapharm conditional proposal
Conditional proposal: 20 medicines and three sites for a 26.4% stake; U.S. Lovenox excluded. Expected start: Q1 2027; completion: Q3 2027.
Pre-transaction forecasts retained. Stake value, supply / transition economics, stranded costs and net equity impact unresolved.
AMVUTTRA royalty illustration
Q3 USD303.6m: provisional estimate using prior-quarter originator sales. Sanofi recognition and cash received unknown; forecast royalties separate.
TTR guidance includes AMVUTTRA and ONPATTRO. Quarter-specific translation and settlement FX unknown.
Capital sensitivity
Inhibrx CVR: USD300m × 0% / 50% / 100% · USD/EUR 1.17 · Q2 2027. Efdoralprin: CVR only.
2027 current-debt repayment stress · no refinancing
60 schedules
Sensitivities
Discount rate × Dupixent sales
21 unresolved inputs
1. Regeneron: actual cash settlement date
- Value
- Unknown · date
- Status
- Unresolved
- Known context
- Management describes payment upon signing; agreement dated October 1 and presentation identifies Q4 reporting
- Model treatment
- If Q4 cash is assumed, label assumption and count once in cash and valuation
- Evidence needed
- Payment confirmation or Sanofi subsequent cash-flow disclosure
2. Regeneron: executed foreign exchange rate
- Value
- Unknown · EUR per USD
- Status
- Unresolved
- Model treatment
- Use explicitly dated reference FX only as a translation assumption
- Evidence needed
- Settlement conversion or applicable issuer translation policy
3. Regeneron: Sanofi accounting classification
- Value
- Unknown · classification and recognition period
- Status
- Unresolved
- Known context
- Q4 transaction reporting is disclosed; no specific Sanofi upfront expense/capitalization conclusion established
- Model treatment
- Do not equate cash consideration with incremental normalized R&D expense
- Evidence needed
- Sanofi transaction accounting disclosure
4. Regeneron: tax treatment
- Value
- Unknown · rate and cash timing
- Status
- Unresolved
- Model treatment
- No tax shield claimed; any tax assumption must be separate
- Evidence needed
- Tax deductibility, jurisdiction and timing evidence
5. Regeneron: milestone scope, dates and probabilities
- Value
- Unknown · asset, date, probability
- Status
- Partly resolved; value unknown
- Known context
- Management links first USD1bn development milestone to Phase 3 initiation; full executed trigger and asset applicability unreviewed
- Model treatment
- Conditional ceilings are not unconditional liabilities or achieved milestones
- Evidence needed
- Full amendment and funded development plan
6. Regeneron: development budget cap and recoupment
- Value
- Unknown · USDm and contract mechanics
- Status
- Unresolved
- Known context
- Costs beyond budget cap initially borne by Regeneron, with future recoup rights
- Model treatment
- Do not assume unlimited 50:50 cost exposure
- Evidence needed
- Full amendment and initial development budgets
7. Regeneron: incremental company R&D budget
- Value
- Unknown · EURm by year
- Status
- Unresolved
- Model treatment
- Do not add new cost on top of an unreconciled company R&D forecast
- Evidence needed
- Program budgets and reconciliation with existing total company R&D
8. Regeneron: new program value
- Value
- Unknown · EURm
- Status
- Unresolved
- Model treatment
- Keep unvalued; null does not mean zero fair value
- Evidence needed
- Clinical and commercial underwriting including cannibalization, launch, costs and rights
9. Regeneron: payment in a future opening cash balance
- Value
- Unknown · boolean
- Status
- Unresolved
- Model treatment
- On rebase, remove future outflow if already included in opening net cash
- Evidence needed
- Next capital bridge and transaction cash flow
10. Regeneron: option exercise and reimbursement
- Value
- Unknown · asset, date, USDm
- Status
- Unresolved
- Known context
- Regeneron has conditional options for lunsekimig and another early Sanofi product, with certain cost reimbursement if exercised
- Model treatment
- No exercise assumed; do not halve existing Sanofi asset economics or add reimbursement without evidence
- Evidence needed
- Exercise notice and full amendment
11. Cheplapharm: sales by transferred product and country
- Value
- Unknown · EURm by product, country and quarter
- Status
- Unresolved
- Known context
- U.S. Lovenox excluded; rounded 2025 portfolio sales approximately1200m including800m Lovenox and400m other medicines
- Model treatment
- Retain U.S. Lovenox and use explicit deferred-perimeter scenario until split can be supported
- Evidence needed
- Country/product perimeter and effective transfer dates
12. Cheplapharm: fair value of the received equity stake
- Value
- Unknown · EURm
- Status
- Unresolved
- Model treatment
- 26.4% stake is a source fact; value remains null, not zero
- Evidence needed
- Received equity valuation, capital structure, leverage and shareholder terms
13. Cheplapharm: supply, transition and retained costs
- Value
- Unknown · EURm by year
- Status
- Unresolved
- Model treatment
- No net divestment value or global margin removal inferred
- Evidence needed
- Supply agreements, transition service economics, site costs and retained overhead
14. Cheplapharm: closing and country transfer dates
- Value
- Unknown · date by jurisdiction
- Status
- Unresolved
- Known context
- Expected start Q1 2027 and completion Q3 2027 remain conditional
- Model treatment
- Expected window is scenario timing, not an unconditional completed transfer
- Evidence needed
- Closing and regulatory/consultation completion notices
15. Amvuttra: booked estimates and policy effective date
- Value
- Unknown · USDm/EURm by quarter and date
- Status
- Unresolved
- Model treatment
- Known prior sales support a provisional diagnostic; historical estimates and total recognition stay null
- Evidence needed
- Sanofi quarterly estimate, correction and policy reconciliation
16. Amvuttra: actual Q3 and Q4 sales
- Value
- Unknown · USDm by quarter
- Status
- Unresolved
- Model treatment
- Forecast assumptions remain separate from actuals; no combined TTR guidance treated wholly as Amvuttra
- Evidence needed
- Originator quarterly actual product sales
17. Amvuttra: foreign exchange and correction translation
- Value
- Unknown · EUR per USD by quarter
- Status
- Unresolved
- Model treatment
- Do not force annual economic royalty into reported quarterly recognition
- Evidence needed
- Sanofi accounting translation mechanics and booked rates
18. Amvuttra: cash receipts
- Value
- Unknown · EURm and settlement date
- Status
- Unresolved
- Model treatment
- Accrual diagnostic does not establish cash received
- Evidence needed
- Receivable and cash collection data
19. Capital: September net treasury shares and dilution
- Value
- Unknown · million ordinary shares
- Status
- Unresolved
- Known context
- September issued shares1207.773393m equal old July issued-share sensitivity; September treasury and current dilution not established
- Model treatment
- Carry June net-treasury proxy with date and September issued observation separately; do not use voting-right difference
- Evidence needed
- Same-date treasury holdings, awards and denominator convention
20. Capital: current cash, debt and remaining cash flows
- Value
- Unknown · EURm as of new valuation date
- Status
- Unresolved
- Model treatment
- Keep June valuation anchor unless complete roll is reconciled
- Evidence needed
- Q3 balance sheet plus financing, distributions, acquisitions and operating cash bridge
21. Capital: current diluted market capitalization
- Value
- Unknown · EURm or USDm with share and price timestamps
- Status
- Quarantined; value unknown
- Model treatment
- No comparison to quarantined SNY feed market cap
- Evidence needed
- Consistent ADS/ordinary share basis, same-date net/diluted count and price/FX
Literature
Reviewed through September 8, 2026.
Lancet · 2025-10-17
FLUNITY-HD: influenza/pneumonia admissions 1,312/233,311 versus 1,437/233,009; relative efficacy 8.8% (95% CI 1.7–15.5); one-sided P=.0082.
Eur J Pharmacol · 2025-08-05
Rovadicitinib after ruxolitinib: n=9, single-arm Phase Ib; grade ≥3 thrombocytopenia 33.3%.
Blood · 2025-06-19
ATLAS-OLE: AT-guided dosing. Interim cohort n=213; integrated safety n=286. ABR comparable to prior factor prophylaxis; nonrandomized comparison.
Blood · 2025-06-12
Rovadicitinib cGVHD: n=44, single-arm; best response 86.4% (95% CI 72.6–94.8). Anemia 38.6%; grade ≥3 anemia 4.6%.
Blood · 2025-06-12
LUNA3: durable platelet response 31/133 versus 0/69 at 24 weeks. Continued treatment response-selected.
N Engl J Med · 2025-04-08
HERCULES: 754/377 randomized; disability-progression HR 0.69 (95% CI 0.55–0.88). Serious events 15.0%/10.4%; ALT >3× normal 4.0%/1.6%.
N Engl J Med · 2024-09-02
PALISADE: n=75; month-10 triglycerides −80%/−78% versus −17%. Pancreatitis OR 0.17 (95% CI 0.03–0.94).
N Engl J Med · 2024-06-03
IMROZ: 446 transplant-ineligible patients; 60-month PFS 63.2% versus 45.2%; HR 0.60 (98.5% CI 0.41–0.88).
J Allergy Clin Immunol · 2024-02-29
CUPID A: n=138, omalizumab-naive; UAS7 difference −8.5 (95% CI −13.2 to −3.9). CUPID B, n=108: primary endpoint missed.
N Engl J Med · 2024-02-15
Frexalimab: 129 randomized, 114 efficacy-evaluable; week-12 MRI rate ratios 0.11/0.21. Imaging endpoint.
N Engl J Med · 2023-12-28
HARMONIE: RSV hospitalization 11/4,037 versus 60/4,021; efficacy 83.2% (95% CI 67.8–92.0). Open-label; one season.
N Engl J Med · 2023-10-18
PROTECT: 217/111 randomized; week-78 C-peptide difference 0.13 pmol/mL (95% CI 0.09–0.17). Key clinical secondary endpoints nonsignificant.
NEJM Evid · 2023-05-23
PIONEER: 141/71 randomized; week-24 symptom-score change −15.6 versus −9.2. Tryptase reduction ≥50%: 76/141 versus 0/71.
N Engl J Med · 2023-05-21
BOREAS: 939 eosinophilic COPD exacerbators; exacerbation rate ratio 0.70 (95% CI 0.58–0.86), maximal inhaled treatment.
Nat Med · 2023-05-04
PRIME: week-24 itch response 45/75 versus 14/76. PRIME 2: week-12 response 29/78 versus 18/82.
N Engl J Med · 2023-01-26
XTEND: n=133; weekly prophylaxis mean ABR 0.71 (95% CI 0.52–0.97). Prestudy comparator: intrapatient.
N Engl J Med · 2022-12-22
EoE Part A, week 24: histologic remission 25/42 versus 2/39. Dysphagia improved with weekly, not every-two-week dosing.
N Engl J Med · 2022-03-03
MELODY: medically attended RSV-LRTI 12/994 versus 25/496; efficacy 74.5% (95% CI 49.6–87.1). Hospitalization CI crosses zero.
N Engl J Med · 2019-06-09
TN-10: progression in 19/44 teplizumab versus 23/32 placebo recipients.
Background wording corrected; endpoints unchanged ↗
N Engl J Med · 2018-11-07
ODYSSEY: 903/9,462 versus 1,052/9,462 cardiovascular events; HR 0.85 (95% CI 0.78–0.93). Injection reactions increased.
N Engl J Med · 2018-05-21
QUEST: n=1,902; annual severe-exacerbation rate 0.46 versus 0.87 with 200 mg dosing over 52 weeks.
N Engl J Med · 2016-09-30
SOLO 1/2: 671/708 adults; week-16 IGA response 38%/36% versus 10%/8%. Injection reactions and conjunctivitis increased.
Diabetes Care · 2016-08-15
LixiLan-O: n=1,170, open-label; week-30 HbA1c −1.6% combination, −1.3% glargine, −0.9% lixisenatide.
Glucose units corrected; efficacy unchanged ↗
N Engl J Med · 2012-06-11
ORIGIN: n=12,537; median 6.2 years. Cardiovascular outcomes neutral; severe hypoglycemia and weight gain increased.
Lancet · 1996-11-16
CAPRIE: n=19,185; annual vascular-event risk 5.32% versus 5.83%, aspirin 325 mg; relative reduction 8.7% (95% CI 0.3–16.5).
Unassessed corrections
Lancet · 2019-09-19
SINUS: correction unassessed.
Correction body unassessed ↗
Dec 2021
COMET: correction unassessed.
Correction ↗
Overlapping cohorts
Circulation · 2025-11-10
FLUNITY-HD secondary analysis; same 466,320 participants.
N Engl J Med · 2023-04-05
MELODY expanded cohort; overlaps original trial.