Vertex

VRTX · 2026-09-08

Research

CF: 96% of Q2 2026 revenue. 10-Q ↗
Crinetics acquired September 1, 2026. Acquisition ↗

Programs

Revenue estimates

Vertex product sales · USDm · before probability weighting

Case	Launch / origin	Probability	2030 E	2035 E	2040 E	Peak to 2055
Bear	2012	100%	10,634	9,535	2,886	11,940 (2027)
Base	2012	100%	15,345	17,775	12,564	18,111 (2037)
Bull	2012	100%	18,002	22,557	23,882	23,882 (2039)

Revenue drivers

89% mature contribution margin · ALYFTREK royalty: 4% base; disputed claim ~8%

Market	Volume	Net price / unit, USD	Product sales, USDm
US · ALYFTREK	35,565 patient-years	252,837	8,992.3
US · TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO	5,376 patient-years	243,112	1,307.0
US · Legacy	414 patient-years	37,941	15.7
Europe / Canada / Australia · ALYFTREK	43,213 patient-years	144,478	6,243.3
Europe / Canada / Australia · TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO	6,532 patient-years	138,921	907.5
Europe / Canada / Australia · Legacy	502 patient-years	21,681	10.9
Other markets · ALYFTREK	7,202 patient-years	36,120	260.1
Other markets · TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO	1,089 patient-years	34,730	37.8
Other markets · Legacy	84 patient-years	5,420	0.5

Cohorts and uptake

US · ALYFTREK

Genotype eligible: 49,830
Access: 97.0%
Vertex share: 93.0%
Regimen share: 86.0%
Royalty E: 4.0%

US · TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO

Genotype eligible: 49,830
Access: 97.0%
Vertex share: 93.0%
Regimen share: 13.0%
Royalty E: 9.3%

US · Legacy

Genotype eligible: 49,830
Access: 97.0%
Vertex share: 93.0%
Regimen share: 1.0%
Royalty E: 13.0%

Europe / Canada / Australia · ALYFTREK

Genotype eligible: 65,253
Access: 90.0%
Vertex share: 93.0%
Regimen share: 86.0%
Royalty E: 4.0%

Europe / Canada / Australia · TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO

Genotype eligible: 65,253
Access: 90.0%
Vertex share: 93.0%
Regimen share: 13.0%
Royalty E: 9.3%

Europe / Canada / Australia · Legacy

Genotype eligible: 65,253
Access: 90.0%
Vertex share: 93.0%
Regimen share: 1.0%
Royalty E: 13.0%

Other markets · ALYFTREK

Genotype eligible: 17,796
Access: 55.0%
Vertex share: 93.0%
Regimen share: 86.0%
Royalty E: 4.0%

Other markets · TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO

Genotype eligible: 17,796
Access: 55.0%
Vertex share: 93.0%
Regimen share: 13.0%
Royalty E: 9.3%

Other markets · Legacy

Genotype eligible: 17,796
Access: 55.0%
Vertex share: 93.0%
Regimen share: 1.0%
Royalty E: 13.0%

Annual revenue · 2026 H2–2055

Year	Bear	Base	Bull
2026 H2 E	6,277.1	6,477.1	6,627.1
2027 E	11,940.1	13,266.4	14,034.7
2028 E	11,514.2	13,930.8	15,256.7
2029 E	11,078.4	14,623.4	16,576.8
2030 E	10,633.9	15,345.4	18,002.1
2031 E	10,409.7	15,822.3	18,862.6
2032 E	10,198.9	16,262.3	19,763.1
2033 E	9,987.8	16,738.8	20,699.6
2034 E	9,768.2	17,244.6	21,600.2
2035 E	9,535.4	17,775.0	22,556.6
2036 E	9,321.0	17,941.0	22,873.8
2037 E	8,718.9	18,111.4	23,201.4
2038 E	8,340.9	17,768.0	23,538.0
2039 E	4,910.2	17,675.3	23,882.4
2040 E	2,886.1	12,564.3	23,881.9
2041 E	1,731.7	8,795.0	23,597.0
2042 E	1,039.0	6,156.5	18,877.6
2043 E	623.4	4,309.6	15,102.1
2044 E	374.0	3,016.7	12,081.7
2045 E	224.4	2,111.7	9,665.3
2046 E	134.7	1,478.2	7,732.3
2047 E	80.8	1,034.7	6,185.8
2048 E	48.5	724.3	4,948.7
2049 E	29.1	507.0	3,958.9
2050 E	17.5	354.9	3,167.1
2051 E	10.5	248.4	2,533.7
2052 E	6.3	173.9	2,027.0
2053 E	3.8	121.7	1,621.6
2054 E	2.3	85.2	1,297.3
2055 E	1.4	59.6	1,037.8

Financials

USD millions; EPS in USD/share

Revenue

Historical quarterly results, Latest available comparatives. USD millions, except EPS in dollars per share and shares in millions. Select a value for sources.
USD millions	2025-Q3	2025-Q4	2026-Q1	2026-Q2
Revenue
CF sales
TRIKAFTA / KAFTRIO
ALYFTREK
CASGEVY
JOURNAVX
Cost of sales
Gross profit
R&D
Acquired IPR&D
SG&A
Operating income / loss
Net income / loss
Diluted EPS ($/share)		—
Cash + marketable investments
Operating cash flow
Capex (cash outflow)
OCF − capex

Accounting notes

Cash includes investments. FCF = OCF − capex.

Historical data excludes Crinetics.

Filing comparison

Period

9 differences

2024-Q2 filing comparison. USD and share counts in millions; EPS in dollars per share.
Metric	Original filing	Difference
ALYFTREK	—	Newly available
CASGEVY	—	Newly available
CF sales		Newly available
Intangible impairment	—	Newly available
JOURNAVX	—	Newly available
CASGEVY and JOURNAVX combined		Newly available
Other product revenues (includes non-CF before 2026)	—	Newly available
Other revenue		Newly available
Product sales	—	Newly available

Forecast

2026 A/E: H1 actual; Crinetics from September 1.

USD millions	2026 A/E	2027 E	2028 E	2029 E	2030 E	2031 E
Revenue	13,219	14,444	16,073	17,953	20,078	21,874
Cost of sales	1,918	2,046	2,359	2,682	3,012	3,311
Gross profit	11,301	12,398	13,714	15,272	17,066	18,564
R&D	4,383	4,650	4,733	4,817	4,900	4,860
SG&A	2,097	2,249	2,454	2,551	2,541	2,660
Acquired IPR&D	100	150	150	150	150	150
Operating income	4,719	5,349	6,377	7,754	9,475	10,894
Pretax income	5,091	5,557	6,778	8,396	10,401	12,132
Tax	1,003	1,111	1,356	1,679	2,080	2,426
Net income · pre-PPA	4,088	4,446	5,422	6,717	8,321	9,706
EPS · USD/share	16.09	17.50	21.34	26.44	32.75	38.20
Operating cash flow	4,928	5,465	6,355	7,679	9,313	10,746
Capex	510	550	583	617	650	640
Ending cash	11,219	14,856	19,335	23,590	31,932	41,717
Ending term debt	4,500	3,500	2,500	0	0	0

2032–2055

USD millions	2032 E	2033 E	2034 E	2035 E	2036 E	2037 E
Revenue	23,646	25,382	26,770	27,885	28,376	28,269
Cost of sales	3,595	3,864	3,997	4,073	4,107	3,905
Gross profit	20,051	21,518	22,772	23,811	24,269	24,363
R&D	4,820	4,780	4,740	4,700	4,460	4,220
SG&A	2,772	2,875	2,937	3,013	2,950	2,828
Acquired IPR&D	150	150	170	150	155	130
Operating income	12,309	13,713	14,925	15,948	16,705	17,186
Pretax income	13,913	15,727	17,403	18,937	20,258	21,320
Tax	2,783	3,145	3,481	3,787	4,052	4,264
Net income · pre-PPA	11,131	12,581	13,922	15,150	16,206	17,056
EPS · USD/share	43.81	49.52	54.80	59.63	63.79	67.13
Operating cash flow	12,189	13,658	15,049	16,318	17,375	18,223
Capex	630	620	610	600	570	540
Ending cash	52,953	65,669	79,785	95,180	111,679	129,072
Ending term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0

USD millions	2038 E	2039 E	2040 E	2041 E	2042 E	2043 E
Revenue	27,661	27,167	21,707	17,037	13,591	10,575
Cost of sales	3,662	3,455	2,856	2,343	1,946	1,569
Gross profit	23,999	23,712	18,850	14,694	11,645	9,006
R&D	3,980	3,740	3,500	3,180	2,860	2,540
SG&A	2,699	2,574	2,354	2,031	1,768	1,528
Acquired IPR&D	130	110	100	90	80	70
Operating income	17,190	17,288	12,896	9,393	6,937	4,867
Pretax income	21,942	22,675	18,920	15,926	13,918	12,239
Tax	4,388	4,535	3,784	3,185	2,784	2,448
Net income · pre-PPA	17,553	18,140	15,136	12,741	11,134	9,792
EPS · USD/share	69.09	71.40	59.58	50.15	43.82	38.54
Operating cash flow	18,708	19,221	16,652	14,102	12,297	10,835
Capex	510	480	450	414	378	342
Ending cash	146,998	165,484	181,447	194,927	206,657	216,982
Ending term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0

USD millions	2044 E	2045 E	2046 E	2047 E	2048 E	2049 E
Revenue	8,330	6,606	5,297	4,284	3,468	2,821
Cost of sales	1,278	1,045	861	713	590	486
Gross profit	7,052	5,562	4,436	3,571	2,879	2,335
R&D	2,220	1,900	1,680	1,460	1,240	1,020
SG&A	1,324	1,139	984	843	712	588
Acquired IPR&D	60	50	45	40	35	30
Operating income	3,448	2,473	1,728	1,228	892	697
Pretax income	11,189	10,512	10,068	9,857	9,830	9,893
Tax	2,238	2,102	2,014	1,971	1,966	1,979
Net income · pre-PPA	8,951	8,410	8,055	7,886	7,864	7,914
EPS · USD/share	35.23	33.10	31.70	31.04	30.95	31.15
Operating cash flow	9,842	9,172	8,716	8,457	8,356	8,329
Capex	306	270	247	224	201	178
Ending cash	226,369	235,141	243,495	251,628	259,697	267,778
Ending term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0

USD millions	2050 E	2051 E	2052 E	2053 E	2054 E	2055 E
Revenue	2,309	1,900	1,571	1,305	1,087	909
Cost of sales	402	334	278	231	193	161
Gross profit	1,907	1,566	1,294	1,073	894	748
R&D	800	690	580	470	360	250
SG&A	471	404	340	280	223	167
Acquired IPR&D	25	20	15	10	5	0
Operating income	610	453	358	313	307	330
Pretax income	10,090	10,221	10,446	10,671	10,969	11,305
Tax	2,018	2,044	2,089	2,134	2,194	2,261
Net income · pre-PPA	8,072	8,176	8,357	8,537	8,775	9,044
EPS · USD/share	31.77	32.18	32.89	33.60	34.54	35.60
Operating cash flow	8,414	8,467	8,600	8,733	8,927	9,243
Capex	155	132	109	86	63	40
Ending cash	275,980	284,267	292,717	301,332	310,170	319,356
Ending term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0

Quarterly forecast

USD millions	2026-Q3 E	2026-Q4 E	2027-Q1 E	2027-Q2 E
Revenue	3,338	3,560	3,611	3,611
Cost of sales	497	539	512	512
Gross profit	2,842	3,020	3,099	3,099
R&D	1,181	1,247	1,163	1,163
SG&A	475	546	562	562
Acquired IPR&D	39	39	38	38
Operating income	1,146	1,188	1,337	1,337
Pretax income	1,232	1,214	1,371	1,382
Tax	246	243	274	276
Net income · pre-PPA	986	972	1,097	1,105
EPS · USD/share	3.88	3.82	4.32	4.35
Operating cash flow	1,225	1,150	1,336	1,365
Capex	130	135	138	138
Ending cash	10,273	11,219	12,348	13,506
Ending term debt	4,500	4,500	4,500	4,500

USD millions	2027-Q3 E	2027-Q4 E	2028-Q1 E	2028-Q2 E
Revenue	3,611	3,611	4,018	4,018
Cost of sales	512	512	590	590
Gross profit	3,099	3,099	3,429	3,429
R&D	1,163	1,163	1,183	1,183
SG&A	562	562	613	613
Acquired IPR&D	38	38	38	38
Operating income	1,337	1,337	1,594	1,594
Pretax income	1,397	1,408	1,674	1,685
Tax	279	282	335	337
Net income · pre-PPA	1,117	1,126	1,339	1,348
EPS · USD/share	4.40	4.43	5.27	5.31
Operating cash flow	1,377	1,386	1,450	1,622
Capex	138	138	146	146
Ending cash	13,677	14,856	16,088	17,490
Ending term debt	3,500	3,500	3,500	3,500

USD millions	2028-Q3 E	2028-Q4 E	2029-Q1 E	2029-Q2 E
Revenue	4,018	4,018	4,488	4,488
Cost of sales	590	590	670	670
Gross profit	3,429	3,429	3,818	3,818
R&D	1,183	1,183	1,204	1,204
SG&A	613	613	638	638
Acquired IPR&D	38	38	38	38
Operating income	1,594	1,594	1,939	1,939
Pretax income	1,703	1,716	2,070	2,085
Tax	341	343	414	417
Net income · pre-PPA	1,362	1,373	1,656	1,668
EPS · USD/share	5.36	5.40	6.52	6.56
Operating cash flow	1,636	1,647	1,755	1,955
Capex	146	146	154	154
Ending cash	17,907	19,335	20,859	22,584
Ending term debt	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500

USD millions	2029-Q3 E	2029-Q4 E	2030-Q1 E	2030-Q2 E
Revenue	4,488	4,488	5,020	5,020
Cost of sales	670	670	753	753
Gross profit	3,818	3,818	4,267	4,267
R&D	1,204	1,204	1,225	1,225
SG&A	638	638	635	635
Acquired IPR&D	38	38	38	38
Operating income	1,939	1,939	2,369	2,369
Pretax income	2,112	2,130	2,571	2,590
Tax	422	426	514	518
Net income · pre-PPA	1,690	1,704	2,057	2,072
EPS · USD/share	6.65	6.71	8.09	8.15
Operating cash flow	1,977	1,991	2,145	2,373
Capex	154	154	163	163
Ending cash	21,830	23,590	25,493	27,623
Ending term debt	0	0	0	0

Accounting

CASGEVY: gross sales; CRISPR profit/loss share in costs.
Povetacicept Asia: royalty revenue.
Acquisition PPA excluded from earnings.

10-Q ↗Acquisition ↗

Valuation

Risk-adjusted DCF · USDm · through 2055 · terminal value: 0

Asset / deduction	Bear	Base	Bull
Discount rate	11%	10%	9%
Atumelnant · adult CAH	(301)	1,439	8,659
Atumelnant · pediatric CAH	(388)	(140)	1,279
Atumelnant · Cushing	(416)	(269)	1,270
CASGEVY · SCD	317	4,508	15,989
CASGEVY · TDT	18	826	2,880
CF modulators	60,857	108,517	156,554
Inaxaplin	(383)	2,126	11,953
JOURNAVX · acute pain	411	4,003	18,900
PALSONIFY · acromegaly	515	3,732	11,376
Paltusotine · carcinoid	(251)	618	4,888
Povetacicept · gMG	(514)	(318)	2,034
gMG · Zai royalties	0	2	23
Povetacicept · IgAN	600	9,360	34,423
IgAN · Asian royalties	19	227	1,053
Povetacicept · pMN	(545)	795	6,749
pMN · Asian royalties	1	15	100
Suzetrigine · DPN	(753)	632	13,110
VX-407	(578)	(560)	276
VX-670	(911)	(750)	1,971
Zimislecel	(1,176)	(1,224)	(358)
Assets	56,524	133,538	293,128
Central R&D	(20,487)	(26,717)	(36,394)
Central SG&A	(11,109)	(13,805)	(17,649)
Acquired IPR&D	(767)	(1,213)	(1,719)
Operating tax	(5,166)	(18,361)	(47,473)
Net reinvestment	(949)	(2,590)	(5,364)
Enterprise value	18,045	70,852	184,529
Net cash	5,378	5,442	5,475
Equity value	23,423	76,294	190,004
Value / share, USD	92.19	300.30	747.87

Asset cash flows and capital

Asset	Commercial PV	Development	Milestones	rNPV
Atumelnant · adult CAH	1,959	(520)	0	1,439
Atumelnant · pediatric CAH	355	(495)	0	(140)
Atumelnant · Cushing	251	(520)	0	(269)
CASGEVY · SCD	4,884	(376)	0	4,508
CASGEVY · TDT	952	(126)	0	826
CF modulators	110,823	(2,307)	0	108,517
Inaxaplin	2,914	(788)	0	2,126
JOURNAVX · acute pain	4,473	(470)	0	4,003
PALSONIFY · acromegaly	3,881	(150)	0	3,732
Paltusotine · carcinoid	991	(374)	0	618
Povetacicept · gMG	335	(653)	0	(318)
gMG · Zai royalties	2	0	0	2
Povetacicept · IgAN	10,179	(820)	0	9,360
IgAN · Asian royalties	227	0	0	227
Povetacicept · pMN	1,579	(784)	0	795
pMN · Asian royalties	15	0	0	15
Suzetrigine · DPN	1,539	(906)	0	632
VX-407	158	(717)	0	(560)
VX-670	403	(1,135)	(18)	(750)
Zimislecel	224	(1,448)	0	(1,224)

Capital · September 8, 2026

June cash + investments: 13,641.5
Acquisition cash event: (4,400.0)
Interim cash flow · E: 810.3
September cash · E: 10,051.8
Term loan · E: 4,500.0
Finance leases · E: 110.0
Net cash · E: 5,441.7

Shares	Million	Value / share, USD
July 31 basic	253.461	301.01
Basic + Q2 option proxy	254.061	300.30
Gross award stress	257.861	295.87
Q2 weighted diluted	255.200	298.96

Sensitivities

Discount rate × DPN probability

Value / share, USD	40%	60%	80%
8%	343.68	345.64	347.59
9%	319.97	321.75	323.52
10%	298.68	300.30	301.91
11%	279.52	280.99	282.47
12%	262.23	263.58	264.92

Operating sensitivities · base

Assumption	Value / share, USD	Change
ALYFTREK royalty 8%	289.07	(11.23)
CF erosion −2 years	273.15	(27.15)
CF erosion +2 years	322.59	22.29
Term loan · $2bn	300.30	0.00
Transaction fees · $200m	299.90	(0.39)
Working capital 15%	299.53	(0.76)

Literature

J Clin Endocrinol Metab · 2026-03-17

Rapid and Sustained Response of Biochemically Uncontrolled Acromegaly to Once-daily Oral Paltusotine Treatment. ↗

Active acromegaly, randomized trial: IGF-I normalized in 30/54 paltusotine versus 3/57 placebo patients at week 24.

PMID 41128642DOI ↗

Kidney Int Rep · 2025-11-03

Povetacicept for IgA Nephropathy and Primary Membranous Nephropathy. ↗

Open-label IgAN cohort: week 48 remission in 9/17 evaluable patients receiving 80 mg; 21 enrolled.

PMID 41541780DOI ↗

N Engl J Med · 2025-06-20

Stem Cell-Derived, Fully Differentiated Islets for Type 1 Diabetes. ↗

Non-prespecified Phase 1/2 interim: 10/12 full-dose patients insulin-independent at day 365. Immunosuppression required; 14 analyzed, three serious neutropenia cases, two deaths.

PMID 40544428DOI ↗

Anesthesiology · 2025-03-21

Suzetrigine, a Nonopioid Na V 1.8 Inhibitor for Treatment of Moderate-to-severe Acute Pain: Two Phase 3 Randomized Clinical Trials. ↗

Two 48-hour trials: placebo SPID48 endpoints met; hydrocodone/acetaminophen superiority endpoints missed.

PMID 40117446DOI ↗

J Clin Endocrinol Metab · 2024-12-18

Acromegaly Disease Control Maintained After Switching From Injected Somatostatin Receptor Ligands to Oral Paltusotine. ↗

Controlled acromegaly switch trial: normal IGF-I maintained in 25/30 paltusotine versus 1/28 placebo patients at week 36.

PMID 38828555DOI ↗

N Engl J Med · 2024-04-24

Exagamglogene Autotemcel for Transfusion-Dependent β-Thalassemia. ↗

Single-arm: 32/35 evaluable patients transfusion-independent ≥12 months; 52 infused. 95% CI 77–98%.

PMID 38657265DOI ↗

N Engl J Med · 2024-04-24

Exagamglogene Autotemcel for Severe Sickle Cell Disease. ↗

Single-arm: 29/30 evaluable patients severe-crisis-free ≥12 months; 44 infused. 95% CI 83–100%.

PMID 38661449DOI ↗

N Engl J Med · 2023-03-16

Inaxaplin for Proteinuric Kidney Disease in Persons with Two APOL1 Variants. ↗

Phase 2a, uncontrolled. Week 13 UPCR: −47.6% (95% CI −60.0 to −31.3); 13 adherence-qualified patients.

PMID 36920755DOI ↗

N Engl J Med · 2019-10-31

Elexacaftor-Tezacaftor-Ivacaftor for Cystic Fibrosis with a Single Phe508del Allele. ↗

Randomized F508del/minimal-function study: week 4 ppFEV1 difference +13.8 points versus placebo; 403 treated.

PMID 31697873DOI ↗

Corrections

Lancet Respir Med · 2025-01-02

Vanzacaftor-tezacaftor-deutivacaftor versus elexacaftor-tezacaftor-ivacaftor in individuals with cystic fibrosis aged 12 years and older (SKYLINE Trials VX20-121-102 and VX20-121-103): results from two randomised, active-controlled, phase 3 trials. ↗

PMID 39756424DOI ↗

Correction ↗